Rick Perry 2.0 - Trump's the New Palin: The Republican Clown Car Rolls On

Rick Perry at the National Press Club on July 2nd   [Photo - AP]

Of the fourteen different 2016 GOP presidential candidates, former Texas Governor Rick Perry made what I consider to be the most interesting move towards the center of the American political spectrum during a speech he gave at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C on Thursday.

The speech was a platform for Perry to share details of his economic vision, but it centered mostly on race and the GOP's need to find ways to appeal to the African-American voter base.

He made headlines on social media this week for opening the speech by talking in harrowing detail about the horrific lynching of a 17 year-old mentally disabled African-American in 1916 who was tortured and burned alive by a mob.

While it is significant that a Republican presidential candidate would cite one of the approximately 3,959 black Americans who were killed by lynchings across twelve states in the south between 1877 and 1950 (according to revised statistics revealed in a February 10, 2015 Washington Post article), given the GOP's rather sketchy track record in terms of it's relationship with and appeal to people of color in the past five decades, Perry's speech was a modest step.

And considering Republican's ongoing organized efforts to suppress minority votes on the state and national level a very tentative step at that.
 
But it did offer a glimpse of the kind of strategic political shift any Republican presidential candidate will have to make to realistically contend for key battleground states with large numbers of Electoral College votes (i.e California, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New York or Florida) if they're serious about wanting to win the White House in 2016 or beyond.

The shifting demographics of America today render the Republican's Southern Strategy essentially useless; as Mitt Romney's 2012 campaign clearly demonstrated, Republicans can't simply win less-populated red states and expect to win the White House anymore - the math just doesn't add up.

Perry's speech was a mix of idealistic optimism and stark realism, but it pointed to a directional shift the Republican party is going to have to face sooner or later. If you're interested in checking it out for yourself, the video of the speech is available to watch on C-SPAN.org.

During the speech Perry insisted, “I am here to tell you that it is Republicans, not Democrats, who are truly offering Black Americans the hope of a better life for themselves and their children,” but the former Texas Governor's plan to deliver on that would be a mix taken from the same old Republican grab-bag; slashing government regulations, cutting taxes and gutting core federal programs like Medicaid, Social Security, housing assistance and SNAP. 

But in the same speech he also said, “...because slavery and segregation were sanctioned by government, there is a role for government policy in addressing their lasting effects,”

While the content of his speech was significant, it also has to be viewed in the context of Perry's own need to distance his campaign from "Niggerhead", the name of a rock located on his family's hunting campground in Texas (an issue which dogged him in the 2012 presidential race) as well as the awkward position of some of the leading GOP candidates having taken campaign contributions from white supremacist Earl Holt; who's CCC Website rhetoric partially inspired Charleston massacre shooter Dylann Roof.

Any GOP presidential candidate with half a brain had to have recognized the significance of President Obama's recent Eulogy for South Carolina Senator Clementa Pinckney; I think Perry's speech was, in part, a reaction to the substance of Obama's speech.

But even though it's far too early to tell if Perry's speech translates to an actual policy shift or a meaningful ideological shift in the Republican party, it did have the effect of portraying Perry in a more favorable light and distancing himself from the other members of the crowded Republican Clown Car on the issue of race. 

Now it's not my intention to use the term "Clown Car" to dismiss the presidential ambitions of the fourteen Republican candidates who've declared their intention to seek the GOP presidential nomination for 2016.

On the contrary, as an avid political junkie and political science major who grew up just outside Washington, D.C. I admire the chutzpah of anyone willing to throw their hats into the ring; even if I don't necessarily subscribe to their political vision for America.

That said I think it's fairly clear to most Americans that a number of these GOP candidates espouse political positions so far outside of mainstream thinking that they have zero chance of earning enough electoral college votes to be elected to the highest office in the land.

As events in the past couple weeks have shown, some of these candidates are clearly not "in it to win it", but to embellish their own respective conservative brands and take advantage of the media spotlight to sound off.

Mexican Pinata bearing Donald Trump's likeness

Take Donald Trump, who seems to have taken over the spot vacated by previous Republican presidential contenders Sarah Palin and Michelle Bachman; candidates who seemed to function in an ideological vacuum so far removed from the political mainstream that the candidates themselves became punchlines.

At this point Trump has become such a reviled figure in Mexico that a Mexican artist created a Trump pinata (pictured left).
 
His repulsive hate-filled tirade against Mexican citizens during his recent presidential announcement was not just offensive to many Americans of different ethnic backgrounds, races and religious faiths, the public backlash has now led major corporate interests including Macy's, NBC, Univision and SERTA to sever their business ties with interests controlled by Trump.

Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim, one of the worlds two wealthiest individuals according to Forbes, also severed his business interests with Trump; and New York Mayor Bill DeBlasio has called for the city to terminate any existing city contracts tied to companies controlled by Trump.

Rather than just suck it up and publicly admit that his comments were inappropriate, offensive and went way overboard, Trump seems to be doubling down on his bizarre anti-immigrant hysteria and defending his comments.

Not surprisingly Fox News chief Roger Ailes ordered his troops into battle to leap to Trump's defense.

Fox host Megyn Kelly defends Trump with Ann Coulter

As detailed by Rachel Calvert's article posted on MediaMatters.org last Thursday, Fox anchor Megyn Kelly dredged up anti-immigrant "information" from quasi-white supremacist Ann Coulter's book "Adios America!" to suggest that Trump was simply speaking the truth.

As Calvert's article states, "According to the Southern Poverty Law Center, Coulter's new book cites a long list of racist and white nationalist extremists, repeatedly referencing the conservative anti-immigration think tank Center for Immigration Studies. Coulter's other sources include Peter Brimelow, the English white nationalist who founded the racist blog VDARE and Robert Spencer, co-founder of the anti-Muslim hate group Stop Islamization of America. In fact, Coulter has credited Brimelow with inspiring her anti-immigration views."

On the news analysis program Fox Five last Thursday Eric Bolling dismissed people and organizations who are cutting their ties with Trump's business interests as "economic terrorists".

Which is a rather interesting accusation coming from the right considering how the conservative Republican majority in Congress uses their control of the budget to selectively de-fund everything from voter education initiatives and access, to abortion and public education.

Fancy some Tea Dr. Carson?

Or there's Dr. Ben Carson, who is still evidently laboring under the delusion that the Republican party is actually going to nominate a black American to be their presidential candidate in 2016.

Dr. Carson may be a brilliant preeminent neurosurgeon who's rich, handsome and has honors out the yin-yang but remember he's also the guy who equated the Affordable Care Act to the institution of slavery in 2013 at the Values Voter Summit when he said, “You know Obamacare is really I think the worst thing that has happened in this nation since slavery. And it is in a way, it is slavery in a way, because it is making all of us subservient to the government, and it was never about health care. It was about control."

Control. Riiiight. Got it Doc.

The good doctor recently boasted that no other presidential campaign "will come close" to the 150,000 individual donors his campaign has garnered.

But as an article released this week by Sam Stein (the Senior Politics Editor for The Huffington Post) reports, in only two months progressive Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders has raised $15 million - from his 250,000 individual donors. Sorry Doc.  

Scared of your brother's toxic legacy? Drop your last name!

Then there's former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, or "Jeb!" as he now likes to be known according to the slick new logo (pictured left) he unveiled the other week.

Jeb! still fancies himself the heir apparent to the 2016 GOP crown, but his campaign message thus far has been muddled and plodding at best.

This week he tried to shift his momentum by releasing an unprecedented number of his tax returns, and he deserves a measure of credit for learning from Mitt Romney's critical error during the 2012 presidential race of trying to hide the fact that he's a card-carrying member of the 1% who's worth millions.

During a seven year period, Bush the Younger made a whopping $29 million after leaving office as the Governor of Florida in 2007, and strategically speaking he's smart to just nullify his wealth as a potential attack issue for Democrats and other Republicans by simply releasing the information himself.

But as an interesting article posted on the DailyBeast.com by Charles Gasparino shows, over half of Bush's income made after he left public office came from his position as a "senior adviser" to both Lehman Brothers and Barclays Bank during the start of the Great Recession when the collapse of Lehman Brothers sparked the economic crisis.

As Gasparino wrote in his HuffPo piece, "In recent weeks I’ve interviewed numerous Wall Street executives about Jeb Bush, and his role at both firms. What emerges is a portrait of a bank “adviser” who operated more like a high-level investment banker. A spokeswoman for Bush declined to provide specifics about his work for the banks..." 

How his position as an insider who pocketed millions just as the nation plunged into economic crisis will affect his presidential campaign is yet to be determined, but it will limit his ability to convey any kind of populist economic message; which will be critical for any candidate seeking the White House in 2016. 

I'm looking forward to seeing what the professional talking heads have to say about how the 2016 GOP candidates fared this week on the Sunday morning news shows tomorrow.

What I do find interesting is the conundrum that these fourteen GOP candidates find themselves in as the race intensifies.

The US economy is on fairly stable footing, unemployment sits at 5.3%, Obama's approval ratings are up, the Affordable Care Act has survived a 2nd Supreme Court challenge, same-sex marriage is now legal and Democrats and progressives are mounting legal challenges to Republican voter suppression laws - what's a Republican to do?

These candidates can't simply bash the President and make vague promises about dismantling the Affordable Care Act; they're actually going to have to start to distinguish themselves based on substantive policy positions and specific stances on issues that can appeal to the mainstream.

The political winds can shift from week to week, but it's fair to say it's probably getting a little hot inside that crowded clown car right about now - and it's not even clear who's behind the wheel.

But it's becoming easier to see who's sitting up front and who's stuck in the back.

Happy Independence Day - CG 

A Tale of Two Christies

The charming "National Chris Christie" in action

After months of playing coy with the media about his inevitable official decision to run for president, Chris Christie appeared at his former high school in Livingston, New Jersey to announce that he's the fourteenth Republican candidate to declare for 2016.

I'm not sure the long-anticipated announcement had the "shock and awe" effect on the political establishment he was seeking, but he did get a nice chunk of free media out of it.

As a self-proclaimed political junkie, I listened to a good portion of the first part of his announcement speech. It was heavy on a glowing patriotic reflection on his parent's working class roots and touching references to his adoration of "Mary Pat and the kids", but it was light on his actual record as Governor and even less so on substantive specifics about his actual goals for the country.

While Christie has planned future appearances in the coming weeks to publicly unveil more detailed "policy stances" on specific issues, from my perspective his kickoff speech didn't really separate him from the crowded field of Republican hopefuls. As speeches go it was pretty standard stuff.

November 2012 - Where did the love go?

He lambasted President Obama for lacking "authority" in the Oval Office.

The same President who appeared with Christie (pictured left) after POTUS flew up to the state of New Jersey to personally survey (with Christie) the extensive damage caused by Hurricane Sandy and then used his authority to help push through $47.99 billion in federal aid for the states (including New Jersey) ravaged by flooding. 

In short, the aspiring candidate presented the "National Chris Christie" personae showcased during the 218 of his 518 days in office that he's spent at GOP fundraisers and events in 37 different states and different countries, but there was little of the "Real Chris Christie" familiar to folks who actually live here in New Jersey.

Anti-Christie protesters chant outside Livingston High School

A large and vocal group of anti-Christie protesters (pictured left) that included environmentalists, teachers and frustrated victims of Hurricane Sandy still waiting for compensation, gathered outside Livington High School where Christie was giving his presidential launch speech.

They far outweighed the number of Christie supporters inside attending the speech; a fact that reflects how people in New Jersey tend to view him these days.

It's not that people dislike him, but there's this quiet sense amongst New Jersey folks still feeling the pinch of high taxes, low interest rates and flat wage growth that Christie's only real accomplishment in two terms was a generous tax break to the state's wealthiest citizens.

That was the consensus at my local bar last night where four of us were gathered at closing time. A white married small business owner in his 50's with a kid and two mortgages on a house and an investment property, a white fully-employed divorced man with a grown daughter in his early 50's who owns a house, a white man in his mid 60's who's comfortably retired from the defense contracting sector and yours truly, an employed single black man in his mid 40's who rents an apartment and likes to write.

There was also a white man in his 50's at the bar who's a high school wrestling coach who actually went to school with Chris Christie at Livingston HS - but he stayed conspicuously silent on the political commentary.

Not all of us agree politically, I was the most liberal-minded person there at the time and two of those I mentioned are pretty conservative but in a decent practical "Jack Kemp" way rather than in a Fox News extremist kind of way. But we all agreed about Christie; and we're not alone.

As a resident of NJ, I think Christie's focus on broadening his appeal to the most conservative members of the national Republican voter base and establishing "cred" with the Tea Party element have left him looking like a candidate totally out of touch with where the mainstream American zeitgeist currently sits.

By "out of touch", I'm not just talking about Christie's staunch opposition to the creation of medical marijuana laws in New Jersey, or his melodramatically dismissing popular referendums to legalize, regulate and tax marijuana as "blood money" as he did earlier this year; measures that are supported by a majority of Americans by the way.

He used to be pro-choice as most people in New Jersey tend to be, but then he reversed his position on the issue as he solidified his presidential ambitions; and he recently vetoed the use of taxpayer funds for Planned Parenthood even though the funds were being used for gynecological services for women - including cancer screenings.

Even as Christie passed tax cuts for New Jersey's wealthiest taxpayers, his administration has backed efforts to cut public transportation by scaling back train and bus service for commuters even as fares go up; and he voted against raising gas taxes to help start a long-needed construction of a new commuter rail tunnel in order to remain loyal to Grover Norquist's "never raise taxes" pledge conservatives deify.

So Christie has consistently used his power as Governor to put the conservative ideological policy stances of extremist Republicans clustered in gerrymandered sections of the nation's red states ahead of the best interests of the citizens of New Jersey who elected him.

One of the sharpest and most brutally honest critiques of Christie's two terms as Governor was written recently by Newark Star Ledger editorial page editor Tom Moran.

Moran has been covering Christie for 14 years and his must-read article posted on NJ.com last Saturday June 27th entitled, 'After 14 Years of Watching Chris Christie a Warning: He Lies', details some of the Governor's most blatant political lies; including the written pledge he sent to New Jersey pensioners during his campaign for Governor promising them he would not cut their pensions and considered them "sacred" - his first major task as the newly elected Governor? Cutting their pensions.

If you've got 14 minutes to spare, I highly recommend you listen to the interview Moran did last Wednesday on The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC.

As you likely heard today, according to the June jobs report, 223,000 new jobs were created in the US last month and the national unemployment rate fell from 5.5% to 5.3% (it's still 9.5% for African-Americans).

Today's positive job numbers also reflect the large numbers of Americans who've been unable to find work giving up on searching for a job and despite the gains, overall wage growth remains flat for most employees.

But for those considering Christie as a presidential candidate, it's important to note that his rosy interpretation of his handling of New Jersey's economy is undermined by the fact that the state's unemployment rate has remained significantly higher than the national average during his tenure - and the state ranks near the bottom in job creation and wage growth. (See the chart above from the United State Bureau of Labor Statistics)

According to a CNN Money article posted on Tuesday June 30th, "New Jersey has yet to recover all the jobs the state lost in the recession. Most states — including neighboring Pennsylvania and New York — are now back on track and even adding more jobs, but not New Jersey."

And with pending court cases it's only a matter of time before the George Washington Bridge scandal once again becomes political red meat.

Frankly that's a lot of political baggage to load onto the already loaded Republican Clown Car.

While Chris Christie is big on a populist message, as outlined by the numerous examples above, his real message is specifically tailored to two small segments of the overall US population, the hyper-conservative non-racially diverse populations of key primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire (two of the most least-populated states in America) and the members of the 1% whose campaign contributions he covets.

When you couple that with Christie's vindictive, confrontational bully-personality, which can't tolerate dissent or differing opinions, and you have a recipe for a presidential candidate who's simply not going to be able to function effectively in the complex and partisan political arena of Washington.

The problem for Christie isn't his ability to communicate, he's an intelligent quick thinker and quite shrewd on his feet and will probably be a tough debate opponent; but he's two completely different people.

There's the "National Chris Christie" personae you've seen on talk shows or standing onstage with his jacket off fielding audience questions from carefully pre-screened crowds; and there's the "Real Chris Christie", a ruthless political operator who lies with a straight face and has morphed to embrace an extremist conservative political agenda.

Not because he believes in it the way a Ted Cruz does, but because he sees it as an avenue to power which is ultimately his real goal in a ruthlessly Koch-ian kind of way; and that kind of politician is dangerous for an America that needs consensus and visionary leadership tempered by wisdom and compassion.

While there's no doubt that Chris Christie truly covets the presidency, or that he's savvy enough to raise enough cash to run a campaign, or tough enough to take on the 14 other suitors for the GOP nod, ultimately it is he himself who is his own worst political enemy.

My prediction is that when we look back on the 2016 Republican presidential race, in some ways that's what it will be about; a tale of two Christies.