Bomb Cylone II & The 2018 Oscars

70 mph wind gusts toppled trees in Takoma Park MD.

Here in Hamilton, New Jersey, the Nor'easter that turned into the 2nd "Bomb Cyclone" of 2018 and brought really high winds, rain and snow in some parts of the area on Friday, thankfully moved out to sea on Saturday, but not before leaving a fair number of trees, branches and power lines down in its wake.

Sadly, at least six people across the mid-Atlantic region lost their lives as a result of the storm that left millions without power and a lot of flooding along coastal areas, especially Massachusetts. 

Here at the apartment complex where I live and work, the ground was so saturated that the high winds toppled a big tree over on Klockner Road into a power line, leaving a live, sparking wire on the ground that alarmed more than a few residents before PSE&G was able to repair it. 

From a purely weather standpoint, the six people who lost their lives not withstanding, overall, what we experienced here in the eastern U.S. was relatively tame compared to the unprecedented and brutal winter storms that pounded Europe last week.

My friend Dave lives in Dunboyne on the east coast of Ireland, and I was just live-chatting with him on Facebook, he said they had five feet of snow there - eight feet in some parts with the snow drifts. 

He's had no heat in his home for three days, but is lucky to have a fireplace going to keep warm; he said the external temperature is finally "going up" to a balmy 7 degrees Celsius today (up from -3 yesterday).

Even though that combination of cold and snow, the result of an unusual weather pattern that delivered cold weather from Siberia, brought many parts of the U.K. and Ireland to a standstill, fortunately Dave says there've been no reports of any deaths so far in the Dunboyne region. 

A couple stroll across the snowy Irish landscape

But as the BBC reported earlier this morning, there are a number of rural towns and villages in parts of Ireland, Scotland and parts of southwestern England that have been relatively cut off.  

While many people are busy digging out of the deep freeze that dumped snow, ice and freezing rain across the British isles and European continent last week, here in the States it's Oscar Sunday - so hopefully the annual telecast broadcast around the world will offer some measure of distraction for people who've been holed up because of the weather.

So let's get to it, I'd like to share some of my thoughts on the nominees for tonight's broadcast of the 90th Academy Awards.

Clearly, the #MeToo movement and the unprecedented fallout from the still-unfolding Harvey Weinstein scandal and the exposure of rampant sexual abuse and harassment in Hollywood is the single topic that's going to define these awards.

In the same way that #OscarsSoWhite, a purely organic social media campaign that propelled the glaring lack of racial and ethnic diversity both in front and behind the camera in the film industry into a mainstream media issue that dominated the 2015 and 2016 Oscars, the issue of gender inequity and inappropriate and sometimes criminal sexual behavior has dominated Hollywood in 2017.

2nd year host Jimmy Kimmel is going to have to walk a fine line in the tone he takes this evening to find a balance between finding ways to express the industry-skewing humor that is an expected ( and I believe necessary) part of the Academy Awards, and recognizing the seriousness of the issues that drive the #MeToo movement.

That said, ladies first - let's start with the Best Actress category.

Francis McDormand confronts a police officer
in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 

Of the five nominees for Lead Actress, my sense is that this is Francis McDormand's year for her standout performance as Mildred Hayes in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. 

McDormand plays a no-nonsense mother who sells her ex-husband's tractor trailer in order to pay for messages to be placed on three large billboards in a field next to a stretch of road outside of the small town.

The messages level harsh accusations that  accuse the local police chief Bill Willoughby, played by Woody Harrelson, of failing to find the person who raped and killed her daughter then burned her body - accusations which set off a cascading series of events that cause conflict within her family, and amongst the town's residents.

I saw four of the Lead Actress performances from the five films from which the nominees were taken, the above-mentioned Three Billboards, Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water, Margot Robbie in I, Tonya and Saoirse Ronan in Lady Bird  - I didn't get a chance to see Meryl Streep in the The Post.   

There's no question that Hawkins turns in a brilliant performance as a deaf cleaning woman who falls in love with a strange humanoid creature that lives underwater in director Guillermo del Toro's The Shape of Water.

Her ability to communicate a range of intense emotions without physically speaking is amazing, and was just one of the aspects that makes the movie such a magical experience.

Margot Robbie as skater Tonya Harding in I, Tonya

While I felt Margot Robbie was really strong as Harley Quinn in the 2016 Warner Brothers anti-superhero blockbuster Suicide Squad, she really takes her acting ability up to the next level in her characterization of ice skater Tonya Harding in the dark comedy I, Tonya. 

The film explores Harding's tough upbringing and difficult relationship with her emotionally abusive and domineering mother.

That role is brilliantly-played by Allison Janney, more on that in a moment. 

I, Tonya also dramatizes Harding's troubled personal life and the infamous incident in 1994 when her abusive ex-husband Jeff Gillooly hatched a bizarre scheme to break the leg of Harding's skating rival Nancy Kerrigan.

Relative newcomer Saoirse (pronounced like Sayer-shuh) Ronan, was really impressive and composed in the beautifully-filmed 2015 romantic drama Brooklyn. 

And she turns in a really strong performance as a teenager negotiating a desire to escape the confines of her Catholic high school teen angst, as well as the suburban community of Sacramento, California where her family lives, to attend college in New York in director / writer Greta Gerwig's semi-autobiographical Lady Bird.   

Best Actress nominees Saoirse Ronan & Meryl Streep

Without having seen Streep in The Post, we all know she's a master actor who always delivers - the Summit, New Jersey-raised performer has earned a staggering 21 Oscar nominations, and won three, but she's so talented that she's basically nominated every year.

In my view the Academy voters, particularly this year, are going to be particularly attuned to recognizing the work of other female performers, not just for the films they've been nominated for this year, but for their overall body of work.

That said I think Frances McDormand turned in the strongest, most gripping on-screen performance of the four that I saw.

When you couple the brilliant original script by director Martin McDonagh, and what I felt was the strongest overall ensemble of actors - my sense is that McDormand deserves to walk home with the Oscar for Lead Actress this year for Three Billboards.

Saoirse Ronan is really solid in Lady Bird, but she's still a young actress who's learning, and her performance just doesn't display the same range and depth as that of the other Best Actress nominees this year. 

But this 23-year-old Irish performer "has it", and she's destined for great things, this is Ronan's third Oscar nomination, which is obviously a huge honor both professionally and creatively and an indication of just how talented she is - her time will no doubt come. 

After the performances Harding and Hawkins turned in, they will have their chances too. 

McDormand as the pregnant sheriff in Fargo

But in my humble opinion, they just didn't match McDormand's on-screen performance this year, nor can they (yet) match McDormand's overall body of work. 

Including her iconic role in the 1996 Cohen brothers film Fargo (for which she won the Best Actress Oscar) and amazing supporting roles in excellent films like 1988's Mississippi Burning and 2005's North Country. 

McDormand was also amazing in the 2014 HBO miniseries Olive Kitteridge, for which she won an Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress, and she also won a Tony for her work on Broadway for her work in the 1988 revival of the classic Tennessee Williams play A Streetcar Named Desire.  

As far as Best Supporting Actress, I was really impressed with the work of Octavia Spencer in The Shape of Water, Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird and singer Mary J. Blige in the highly-underrated Mudbound.

Blige was surprisingly good in this movie considering she doesn't have a ton of acting experience to her credit - something that reflects positively on director Dee Rees' directing skills.

Mudbound was a film which I felt warranted Best Picture and Best Director nominations; more on that in a moment.

While I haven't had the chance to see Lesley Manville's performance in Phantom Thread, I personally don't think any of the Best Supporting Actress performances I saw this year were as intense as Allison Janney as Tonya Harding's mother in I, Tonya.

Allison Janney as Tonya Hardin's mother in I, Tonya

You literally cannot take your eyes off her whenever she's onscreen.

And if you haven't seen her sitting there in her tacky fur coat with a breathing tube in her nose and a parrot on her shoulder staring into the camera - all I can say is that it's intense and menacing. 

You simply have to see it.

My sense is that Allison Janney deserves this Oscar, not just because of her role in I, Tonya but also for her overall body of work.

I think her brilliant television role as White House press secretary and later chief of staff C.J. Craig on NBC's The West Wing (which is beloved by a lot of Hollywood insiders) also plays to her advantage this year with the dark phenomenon of Trump's chaotic presidency looming over the awards.

   

Now I'm not going to dive too deep into the Best Actor category because I'm both torn and biased.

Three of the nominees, Denzel Washington for Roman J. Israel, Esq., Daniel Day-Lewis for Phantom Thread, and Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour - are among my favorite actors of all time.

And let me just say again that I think Washington, who literally tore the screen apart in the 2016 screen adaptation of the August Wilson play Fences, losing the Best Actor award to Casey Affleck last year was a complete travesty - and stands as the biggest Oscar blunder since (thanks to Harvey Weinstein) Gwyneth Paltrow winning Best Actress at the1988 Academy Awards for Shakespeare In Love over the Australian-born Cate Blanchett's brilliant performance as Elizabeth I in Elizabeth.   

Anyway, as much as I like and respect Denzel Washington and Daniel Day-Lewis (who I don't believe for a second is retiring from acting), my sense is that this is Gary Oldman's year to take home the statue.

Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour

His performance as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour, is, quite simply, transformative.

Even without having had the benefit of seeing Roman J. Israel, Esq. or Phantom Thread (neither of which got wide theatrical release or marketing), based on talent and body of work alone, the Best Actor award could go to Washington or Day-Lewis - but both of them have already won multiple Oscars before, and likely will again. 

My sense is that the conventional wisdom is that Oldman deserves to be recognized for his enormous body of film work, particularly his roles in Sid and Nancy, The Professional, The Fifth Element, The Dark Knight trilogy and in the complex 2011 spy drama Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy - which I personally consider one of THE best film performances by an actor in film history.

Newcomers Timothy Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name) and Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out) were both really good in films that generated a lot of critical buzz, and like Saoirse Ronan, both guys have big futures ahead of them when they develop larger bodies of work and gain more experience. 

But their on-screen work simply wasn't on the same level as Oldman's in Darkest Hour, and in my view he takes home the gold tonight.

As for Best Supporting Actor, this is a category that's going to be one of the closest races to watch, and it's a tricky one to try and pick. 

All five of the nominees, Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project, Woody Harrelson for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards, the wonderful Richard Jenkins for The Shape of Water and the brilliant Christopher Plummer for All the Money In the World, are amazing actors with impressive bodies of work.  

Woody Harrelson and Sam Rockwell in
Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri

Unfortunately I didn't get to see The Florida Project, or All the Money in the World directed by Ridley Scott - I'll probably catch those on Netflix or cable.

From the performances I did see it's literally a toss up between Harrelson, Rockwell and Jenkins as to who wins - all three are that good.

But if I had to pick one, I'd say Sam Rockwell is the one who most impressed me, particularly as part of what I considered to be the best overall ensemble in Three Billboards.

His on-screen transition from an ignorant booze-swilling racist to a humbled cop who puts himself on the line to find the main character's daughter's killer is really next level stuff.

But The Shape of Water had what I consider to be the next best ensemble (although the cast of Mudbound was arguably just as good) and Academy voters may want to recognize Richard Jenkins, who has excelled in understated  roles in so many quality projects for both film and television - and is also known as genuinely nice person.

Best Director is going to be a tough category to pick as well.

Get Out has received quite a lot of buzz for writer / director Jordan Peele,  and it's a really good film. 

But I think it's more likely that he's going to be recognized for Best Original Screenplay, because Get Out is certainly one of the most original scripts nominated in recent years.

Greta Gerwig directing Timothy Chalamet and
Saoirse Ronan on the set of Lady Bird

Given the impact of the #MeToo movement, Greta Gerwig's nomination was timely, and I do think Lady Bird was very well directed - it's got some beautiful moments.

But there was what I felt to be a small story issue in terms of a subplot that was kind of left dangling awkwardly without sufficient explanation towards the end of the film. 

It may have been an editing issue, but it seemed to be more of a screenplay issue and since Gerwig wrote the screenplay, that was her responsibility as a director.

Again, I felt strongly that Mudbound, directed by female African-American director Dee Rees, was far superior to Lady Bird in terms of the overall depth and quality of story, cinematography, scope, subject matter and all around acting performances.  

But Mudbound dealt with some delicate issues involving both racism and white supremacy, so it's possible that the majority of the Academy voters (who are overwhelmingly older white men) simply didn't see it, or felt uncomfortable with the subject matter of the story - which includes interracial romance in the 1940's and torture by members of the KKK. 

Perhaps the Academy just felt more "comfortable" with a teenager's coming of age story set in 2003 than a period piece set in the 1940's that deals with two families, one white, one black, confronting racism in the Deep South.

Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread) and Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk) are certainly both brilliant directors with recognized bodies of Oscar-level work on their resumes.

Guillermo del Toro (2nd from right) on the set
of The Shape of Water 

But my money is on Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water.

As my sister pointed out to me after we saw the film, Academy voters are going to have a natural soft-spot for the love of classic Hollywood films and passion for theatrical cinema that are referenced in the film.  

It's a component they can identify with.

And given del Toro's unique style and body of interesting work, odds are strong that he ends up taking the trophy home tonight.

But don't count Nolan out for a Best Director nod.

He put his heart and soul into Dunkirk, an amazingly-filmed account of the infamous evacuation of hundreds of thousands of stranded British, French and Canadian soldiers from the French coast during World War II.

The film itself is "bigger" than the individual actors, and there's not a lot of dialog - in fact there are long stretches where no one says anything, but it doesn't take anything away from the film.

But actor Mark Rylance in particular, gives a really nuanced performance as a civilian boat-owner who sets off across the English Chanel with his son and another young boy to help rescue soldiers from the beaches at Dunkirk.

I was fortunate enough to see him on Broadway last month in the play Farinelli and the King, and he is a fantastic actor.

British soldiers awaiting evacuation on the beach
in Christopher Nolan's Dunkirk

And there are really fine performances from Fionn Whitehead, Tom Glynn-Carney, Kenneth Branagh, Tom Hardy and Cillian Murphy as well - the latter two who worked with Nolan before in the final installment of The Dark Knight trilogy.

I'm going with del Toro, but Dunkirk was absolutely masterfully directed and don't be surprised if Nolan's name is called.

Well this blog entry is long enough, and I've got some stuff to do before I get ready to head off to an Oscar viewing party.

Since I've clearly opined on this year's nominated films, and having seen all the nominated films except for Phantom Thread and The Post, my view is that Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri is this year's Best Picture.

The central theme, a mother's desire for justice for daughter's rape and murder, and a really strong female lead performance make it really timely in light of the #MeToo movement.

But after careful consideration, I really do feel it was the best film of 2017 in a year with some really impressive pictures.

But again, you never know.

Richard Jenkins and Sally Hawkins in The Shape
of Water 

The Oscars always has surprises in store, and while conventional wisdom says that the Best Director usually goes hand-in hand with Best Picture, that's not always true - don't count Steven Spielberg out when he's nominated for anything (Best Picture for The Post).

But as much as I liked Three Billboards, my odds-on favorite for Best Director is still Guillermo del Toro.

So I think The Shape of Water could be the "film of the night".

Whoever wins tonight, I don't think I'll be disappointed because the work of all the nominees was so good - but it's the Oscars, it's live and filled with opinionated people who have to have big egos to be successful in the industry they work in - so there's certain to be some unscripted drama.

And after a week of tough winter weather, and even more unmitigated chaos from the White House, a few hours of drama, Hollywood gossip and recognizing the achievements of the film industry could be just what the doctor ordered.

After all, nothing offers a few hours of escape quite like a good movie, or a star-studded awards ceremony where those films, and the people who make them, get a few precious moments to stand in the spotlight.

Frankly I'll be pleased if the producers of this year's Oscars can manage to get the Best Picture announcement right this year, so that brief moment isn't muddled by controversy because of poor preparation.

As we all saw after the debacle at the end of the 2017 Academy Awards, unlike films, you only get one take at the Oscars.